Collinson FX Market Commentary: October 9, 2013 - Markets transfixed

Yamaha (NZL) and Fineline (NZL) - 18ft International - Day 3, 11 September 2013

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 9, 2013

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Markets are transfixed with the Government shutdown and the Debt Ceiling impasse. This is a growing crises and will impact on global economies.

This happened a couple of years ago and resulted in a big hit to global markets led by equities. The US had their credit rating downgraded, despite the aversion of default. It appears that both sides are not prepared to negotiate and a crises is imminent.

Equities continued to bleed although currencies remain virtually unaffected with the EUR trading at 1.3575 and the GBP 1.6080. European economic conditions seem to be slowing and this has not been improved by the prospects in the US with default on the cards.

Commodity prices also remained mixed with the AUD holding 0.9400 but the KIWI slipping below 0.8300. It appears most directional pulls come from Political negotiations in the US and the failure of the Government negotiate a compromise.

Brinkmanship and last minute deals are a probable outcome, but damage can be done in the meantime!

Stoke (NZL) - 18ft International - Day 3, 11 September 2013, San Francisco

Collinson FX market Commentary: October 8, 2013

The US Government partial shutdown and the looming debt ceiling expiry continued to dominate market direction.

An impasse has grown between the Republican House and the Democratic Presidency and Senate. The Republicans have been forced into a corner and do not want to capitulate and the Democrats want to force their position of strength. The problem only becomes more serious when the Debt Limit is reached mid October. It is hard to see a compromise without a capitulation and the Tories appear the more likely. The disruption to markets come with the uncertainty and this has been hitting equities hard in a month renown for major equity adjustments.

The USD was steady with the EUR trading 1.3575 and the GBP 1.6085. Commodities were mixed and the AUD traded 0.9435 while much of the Country was closed for Labour Day. The KIWI also experienced light trading and held near 0.8300. Watch US and European bonds for signals of danger during these political negotiations as this will reflect the danger levels in the markets.

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